Tables247/Data

Live data · IST

5Five Cricket · cricketv3

First over & total → winner

Australia vs India, 5 overs a side. Team 1 bats first and sets the target; Team 2 chases. Runs in the opening over and the first-innings total each strongly predict who wins — the grid below combines them.

Prediction-onlyHistorical hit rate, coverage, and counts; no stakes or returns.

Live / recent win probability

Immutable per-ball estimates at the canonical scoreboard event time, conditional on a non-tie. The exact card model prices each ball from the cards left in the shoe and is the one to read; the 64-neighbour model is kept beside it for comparison.

Live

Round 6204966935

64-4 (4.5) · 0-0 (0.0)

Last event 26 Sept 2026, 08:04 am IST

Outcome pending

Team 1

AUS

39.7%

64-neighbour 41.2%

Team 2

IND

60.3%

64-neighbour 58.8%

Latest state: innings 1, ball 29 · conditional on a non-tie · exact card model written live · 64-neighbour model from 64 neighbours in 1,775 training matches.

Per-ball probability curve

Chance AUS wins, given no tie, from the exact card model and the 64-neighbour model

Innings 1, ball 1 at 2026-09-26T02:29:42.832Z: exact card model 49.43257969%, 64-neighbour model 53.125%
Innings 1, ball 2 at 2026-09-26T02:29:47.067Z: exact card model 44.83304265%, 64-neighbour model 43.75%
Innings 1, ball 3 at 2026-09-26T02:29:51.171Z: exact card model 42.14053106%, 64-neighbour model 35.9375%
Innings 1, ball 4 at 2026-09-26T02:29:55.846Z: exact card model 45.51659459%, 64-neighbour model 35.9375%
Innings 1, ball 5 at 2026-09-26T02:30:00.257Z: exact card model 42.72465747%, 64-neighbour model 34.375%
Innings 1, ball 6 at 2026-09-26T02:30:04.286Z: exact card model 39.86226254%, 64-neighbour model 32.15511601%. After over 1
Innings 1, ball 7 at 2026-09-26T02:30:56.195Z: exact card model 34.82375582%, 64-neighbour model 30.99015592%
Innings 1, ball 8 at 2026-09-26T02:31:00.731Z: exact card model 42.49484904%, 64-neighbour model 30.93422758%
Innings 1, ball 9 at 2026-09-26T02:31:08.892Z: exact card model 37.13609976%, 64-neighbour model 31.73325428%
Innings 1, ball 10 at 2026-09-26T02:31:12.922Z: exact card model 33.99504192%, 64-neighbour model 28.38389131%
Innings 1, ball 11 at 2026-09-26T02:31:17.292Z: exact card model 37.55794864%, 64-neighbour model 29.55489385%
Innings 1, ball 12 at 2026-09-26T02:31:21.559Z: exact card model 34.26437328%, 64-neighbour model 31.11301524%
Innings 1, ball 13 at 2026-09-26T02:32:09.614Z: exact card model 33.25951861%, 64-neighbour model 29.22689648%
Innings 1, ball 14 at 2026-09-26T02:32:14.385Z: exact card model 27.565965%, 64-neighbour model 29.01302437%
Innings 1, ball 15 at 2026-09-26T02:32:18.917Z: exact card model 28.70092788%, 64-neighbour model 29.52140663%
Innings 1, ball 16 at 2026-09-26T02:32:23.353Z: exact card model 23.02674931%, 64-neighbour model 23.42815379%
Innings 1, ball 17 at 2026-09-26T02:32:29.806Z: exact card model 23.99368841%, 64-neighbour model 26.86424241%
Innings 1, ball 18 at 2026-09-26T02:32:33.879Z: exact card model 18.47633689%, 64-neighbour model 20.85866202%
Innings 1, ball 19 at 2026-09-26T02:33:22.809Z: exact card model 21.3372148%, 64-neighbour model 23.33168304%
Innings 1, ball 20 at 2026-09-26T02:33:27.011Z: exact card model 20.02125741%, 64-neighbour model 21.70665516%
Innings 1, ball 21 at 2026-09-26T02:33:30.896Z: exact card model 14.55371309%, 64-neighbour model 19.27545826%
Innings 1, ball 22 at 2026-09-26T02:33:34.799Z: exact card model 21.55253439%, 64-neighbour model 16.28177407%
Innings 1, ball 23 at 2026-09-26T02:33:38.659Z: exact card model 22.59089556%, 64-neighbour model 18.03282711%
Innings 1, ball 24 at 2026-09-26T02:33:42.847Z: exact card model 23.71613932%, 64-neighbour model 21.41549737%
Innings 1, ball 25 at 2026-09-26T02:34:28.527Z: exact card model 16.81239179%, 64-neighbour model 21.8219707%
Innings 1, ball 26 at 2026-09-26T02:34:33.324Z: exact card model 17.57570617%, 64-neighbour model 17.40888068%
Innings 1, ball 27 at 2026-09-26T02:34:37.587Z: exact card model 27.62190593%, 64-neighbour model 28.52667383%
Innings 1, ball 28 at 2026-09-26T02:34:41.885Z: exact card model 25.68045734%, 64-neighbour model 30.00277821%
Innings 1, ball 29 at 2026-09-26T02:34:47.401Z: exact card model 39.69056309%, 64-neighbour model 41.24509564%

AUS, exact card model39.7%

AUS, 64-neighbour model41.2%

Signals log

Every row the live daemon wrote for this round, in the order it wrote them. Rows are immutable; the settled column is filled by a separate one-way pass once the result arrives.

#	Time	Event	Inn	Ball	Checkpoint	AUS exact	IND exact	AUS 64-nbr	IND 64-nbr	Neighbours	Settled
11	26 Sept 2026, 07:59 am IST	Probability	1	1	—	49.4%	50.6%	53.1%	46.9%	64	—
21	26 Sept 2026, 07:59 am IST	Probability	1	2	—	44.8%	55.2%	43.8%	56.3%	64	—
31	26 Sept 2026, 07:59 am IST	Probability	1	3	—	42.1%	57.9%	35.9%	64.1%	64	—
41	26 Sept 2026, 07:59 am IST	Probability	1	4	—	45.5%	54.5%	35.9%	64.1%	64	—
51	26 Sept 2026, 08:00 am IST	Probability	1	5	—	42.7%	57.3%	34.4%	65.6%	64	—
61	26 Sept 2026, 08:00 am IST	Probability	1	6	—	39.9%	60.1%	32.2%	67.8%	64	—
62	26 Sept 2026, 08:00 am IST	Checkpoint	1	6	After over 1	39.9%	60.1%	32.2%	67.8%	64	—
71	26 Sept 2026, 08:00 am IST	Probability	1	7	—	34.8%	65.2%	31%	69%	64	—
81	26 Sept 2026, 08:01 am IST	Probability	1	8	—	42.5%	57.5%	30.9%	69.1%	64	—
91	26 Sept 2026, 08:01 am IST	Probability	1	9	—	37.1%	62.9%	31.7%	68.3%	64	—
101	26 Sept 2026, 08:01 am IST	Probability	1	10	—	34%	66%	28.4%	71.6%	64	—
111	26 Sept 2026, 08:01 am IST	Probability	1	11	—	37.6%	62.4%	29.6%	70.4%	64	—
121	26 Sept 2026, 08:01 am IST	Probability	1	12	—	34.3%	65.7%	31.1%	68.9%	64	—
131	26 Sept 2026, 08:02 am IST	Probability	1	13	—	33.3%	66.7%	29.2%	70.8%	64	—
141	26 Sept 2026, 08:02 am IST	Probability	1	14	—	27.6%	72.4%	29%	71%	64	—
151	26 Sept 2026, 08:02 am IST	Probability	1	15	—	28.7%	71.3%	29.5%	70.5%	64	—
161	26 Sept 2026, 08:02 am IST	Probability	1	16	—	23%	77%	23.4%	76.6%	64	—
171	26 Sept 2026, 08:02 am IST	Probability	1	17	—	24%	76%	26.9%	73.1%	64	—
181	26 Sept 2026, 08:02 am IST	Probability	1	18	—	18.5%	81.5%	20.9%	79.1%	64	—
191	26 Sept 2026, 08:03 am IST	Probability	1	19	—	21.3%	78.7%	23.3%	76.7%	64	—
201	26 Sept 2026, 08:03 am IST	Probability	1	20	—	20%	80%	21.7%	78.3%	64	—
211	26 Sept 2026, 08:03 am IST	Probability	1	21	—	14.6%	85.4%	19.3%	80.7%	64	—
221	26 Sept 2026, 08:03 am IST	Probability	1	22	—	21.6%	78.4%	16.3%	83.7%	64	—
231	26 Sept 2026, 08:03 am IST	Probability	1	23	—	22.6%	77.4%	18%	82%	64	—
241	26 Sept 2026, 08:03 am IST	Probability	1	24	—	23.7%	76.3%	21.4%	78.6%	64	—
251	26 Sept 2026, 08:04 am IST	Probability	1	25	—	16.8%	83.2%	21.8%	78.2%	64	—
261	26 Sept 2026, 08:04 am IST	Probability	1	26	—	17.6%	82.4%	17.4%	82.6%	64	—
271	26 Sept 2026, 08:04 am IST	Probability	1	27	—	27.6%	72.4%	28.5%	71.5%	64	—
281	26 Sept 2026, 08:04 am IST	Probability	1	28	—	25.7%	74.3%	30%	70%	64	—
291	26 Sept 2026, 08:04 am IST	Probability	1	29	—	39.7%	60.3%	41.2%	58.8%	64	—

Historical prefix evidence

Exact settled sequences sharing the live round's leading ball tokens. Only results known before evaluation are eligible.

Round 6204966935

2ww141106014120303ww42ww633ww3626

No historical match at 8+ balls

The observed prefix has no eligible exact settled sequence.

Historical index is behind canonical results. Match evidence may be incomplete until the next materialization.

Evaluated: 26 Sept 2026, 08:04 am IST
Eligibility cutoff: 26 Sept 2026, 08:04 am IST
Prefix digest: 58634968aa08
Index version: cricketv3-prefix-v1
Index history through: 26 Sept 2026, 07:37 am IST
Canonical results through: 26 Sept 2026, 07:58 am IST

Model back-test: the exact card model against the 64-neighbour blend

Both models on the same 1,01,077 moments from 1,740 decided matches, 7 Aug 2026 to 26 Sept 2026. Each moment sees only matches settled before it; tied matches are left out.

Computed 26 Sept 2026, 06:22 am IST

Picks the winner, exact card model

73.08%

64-neighbour 71.49% on the same moments

Brier score, exact card model

0.1703

64-neighbour 0.1808; lower is better

Moments scored

1,01,077

1,740 decided matches, ties excluded

Full-history tie rate

3.5%

72 ties in 2,086 resolved rounds

Calibration

Mean forecast chance that AUS wins, given no tie, against how often AUS won, in ten bands, for both models on the same moments.

Band	Exact card model			64-neighbour
Band	Moments	Forecast	AUS won	Moments	Forecast	AUS won
0-10%	10,104	3.7%	2.5%	5,279	5.3%	2%
10-20%	6,169	15%	11.8%	6,685	15.2%	9.2%
20-30%	7,789	25.3%	23.2%	10,527	25.4%	22.4%
30-40%	10,075	35.3%	33.9%	15,334	35.2%	34.6%
40-50%	15,593	45.3%	43.1%	17,375	45%	46.4%
50-60%	14,528	54.8%	52.8%	15,991	54.6%	56.3%
60-70%	9,771	64.7%	62.9%	10,327	64.8%	69.2%
70-80%	7,638	74.8%	72.8%	8,354	74.8%	80.8%
80-90%	7,040	85%	81.8%	5,465	84.7%	91.4%
90-100%	12,370	96.9%	96.3%	5,740	95.8%	98.3%

Accuracy by stage

Every moment inside each over, both models. The difference is the exact model's Brier minus the blend's, per match; negative favours the exact model.

Stage	Moments	Exact card model		64-neighbour		Difference per match (t)
Stage	Moments	Picks	Brier	Picks	Brier	Difference per match (t)
First innings, over 1	10,440	57.1%	0.2415	55.4%	0.2465	-0.00499 (-4.37)
First innings, over 2	10,440	61.6%	0.2301	59.7%	0.2362	-0.00616 (-3.79)
First innings, over 3	10,440	65%	0.2172	63%	0.2258	-0.00854 (-4.73)
First innings, over 4	10,440	69.1%	0.2013	68%	0.2096	-0.00831 (-4.10)
First innings, over 5	10,440	72.5%	0.1770	71%	0.1884	-0.01137 (-5.09)
Innings break	1,740	75.3%	0.1636	74.3%	0.1683	-0.00466 (-3.32)
Chase, over 1	10,440	76.2%	0.1574	75.3%	0.1646	-0.00721 (-4.64)
Chase, over 2	10,440	78.9%	0.1414	77.3%	0.1525	-0.01117 (-6.16)
Chase, over 3	10,414	82.9%	0.1185	81.4%	0.1310	-0.01246 (-7.12)
Chase, over 4	9,777	85.2%	0.1008	83.7%	0.1179	-0.01675 (-8.71)
Chase, over 5	6,066	89.7%	0.0731	87.1%	0.0995	-0.02775 (-14.35)

Rolling-50 accuracy

The latest 50 windows at each checkpoint, each window the last 50 decided matches, both models on the same windows. A pick is AUS at a chance of 50% or more, as in the live model's own rolling chart. A window stays visibly insufficient until all 50 matches are present.

Checkpoint	Window end	Exact card model		64-neighbour		Coverage
Checkpoint	Window end	Accuracy	Brier	Accuracy	Brier	Coverage
After over 1	25 Sept 2026, 06:57 am IST	66%	0.217	62%	0.220	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	25 Sept 2026, 07:20 am IST	68%	0.214	64%	0.217	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	25 Sept 2026, 07:52 am IST	68%	0.215	64%	0.217	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	25 Sept 2026, 08:18 am IST	66%	0.216	64%	0.220	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	25 Sept 2026, 08:43 am IST	64%	0.219	64%	0.218	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	25 Sept 2026, 09:07 am IST	64%	0.220	64%	0.221	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	25 Sept 2026, 09:33 am IST	66%	0.217	66%	0.214	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	25 Sept 2026, 09:57 am IST	66%	0.219	64%	0.219	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	25 Sept 2026, 10:22 am IST	66%	0.221	64%	0.219	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	25 Sept 2026, 10:46 am IST	64%	0.222	62%	0.221	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	25 Sept 2026, 11:10 am IST	64%	0.220	62%	0.219	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	25 Sept 2026, 11:36 am IST	64%	0.220	62%	0.218	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	25 Sept 2026, 12:02 pm IST	66%	0.217	62%	0.215	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	25 Sept 2026, 12:27 pm IST	66%	0.219	62%	0.214	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	25 Sept 2026, 12:52 pm IST	66%	0.217	64%	0.212	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	25 Sept 2026, 01:22 pm IST	68%	0.213	66%	0.208	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	25 Sept 2026, 01:47 pm IST	68%	0.216	66%	0.211	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	25 Sept 2026, 02:20 pm IST	68%	0.217	64%	0.214	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	25 Sept 2026, 02:51 pm IST	70%	0.215	64%	0.212	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	25 Sept 2026, 03:19 pm IST	70%	0.219	64%	0.213	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	25 Sept 2026, 03:49 pm IST	70%	0.218	64%	0.213	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	25 Sept 2026, 04:16 pm IST	72%	0.215	66%	0.206	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	25 Sept 2026, 04:40 pm IST	72%	0.214	68%	0.203	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	25 Sept 2026, 05:01 pm IST	72%	0.215	66%	0.204	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	25 Sept 2026, 05:28 pm IST	72%	0.217	66%	0.205	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	25 Sept 2026, 05:55 pm IST	70%	0.220	64%	0.211	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	25 Sept 2026, 06:49 pm IST	72%	0.218	64%	0.213	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	25 Sept 2026, 07:16 pm IST	72%	0.217	64%	0.213	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	25 Sept 2026, 07:43 pm IST	72%	0.216	66%	0.210	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	25 Sept 2026, 08:08 pm IST	72%	0.216	66%	0.208	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	25 Sept 2026, 08:34 pm IST	70%	0.220	64%	0.212	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	25 Sept 2026, 08:54 pm IST	70%	0.219	64%	0.211	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	25 Sept 2026, 09:40 pm IST	72%	0.217	64%	0.210	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	25 Sept 2026, 10:08 pm IST	72%	0.219	64%	0.212	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	25 Sept 2026, 10:32 pm IST	72%	0.218	66%	0.207	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	25 Sept 2026, 10:55 pm IST	72%	0.218	66%	0.209	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	25 Sept 2026, 11:20 pm IST	72%	0.219	66%	0.210	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	25 Sept 2026, 11:50 pm IST	74%	0.215	66%	0.207	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	26 Sept 2026, 12:17 am IST	72%	0.216	64%	0.208	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	26 Sept 2026, 12:56 am IST	72%	0.215	64%	0.208	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	26 Sept 2026, 01:25 am IST	72%	0.214	64%	0.209	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	26 Sept 2026, 01:54 am IST	74%	0.212	64%	0.210	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	26 Sept 2026, 02:27 am IST	76%	0.209	66%	0.207	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	26 Sept 2026, 02:53 am IST	78%	0.206	68%	0.203	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	26 Sept 2026, 03:20 am IST	80%	0.202	70%	0.200	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	26 Sept 2026, 03:44 am IST	78%	0.204	70%	0.203	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	26 Sept 2026, 04:06 am IST	80%	0.202	72%	0.199	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	26 Sept 2026, 04:32 am IST	80%	0.200	72%	0.198	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	26 Sept 2026, 05:02 am IST	80%	0.199	72%	0.196	Complete (50/50)
After over 1	26 Sept 2026, 05:32 am IST	82%	0.198	72%	0.197	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	25 Sept 2026, 07:04 am IST	82%	0.122	78%	0.122	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	25 Sept 2026, 07:34 am IST	82%	0.123	78%	0.123	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	25 Sept 2026, 08:00 am IST	82%	0.123	78%	0.123	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	25 Sept 2026, 08:26 am IST	82%	0.123	78%	0.124	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	25 Sept 2026, 08:50 am IST	82%	0.123	78%	0.125	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	25 Sept 2026, 09:15 am IST	80%	0.130	76%	0.129	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	25 Sept 2026, 09:41 am IST	80%	0.130	76%	0.129	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	25 Sept 2026, 10:04 am IST	80%	0.132	76%	0.133	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	25 Sept 2026, 10:29 am IST	78%	0.146	74%	0.147	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	25 Sept 2026, 10:53 am IST	76%	0.157	72%	0.158	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	25 Sept 2026, 11:18 am IST	76%	0.158	72%	0.159	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	25 Sept 2026, 11:43 am IST	74%	0.173	70%	0.174	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	25 Sept 2026, 12:09 pm IST	74%	0.174	70%	0.175	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	25 Sept 2026, 12:35 pm IST	74%	0.176	70%	0.177	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	25 Sept 2026, 01:02 pm IST	74%	0.173	70%	0.174	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	25 Sept 2026, 01:30 pm IST	74%	0.173	70%	0.174	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	25 Sept 2026, 01:57 pm IST	74%	0.177	70%	0.179	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	25 Sept 2026, 02:31 pm IST	74%	0.181	68%	0.184	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	25 Sept 2026, 02:59 pm IST	74%	0.179	68%	0.182	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	25 Sept 2026, 03:30 pm IST	76%	0.174	70%	0.179	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	25 Sept 2026, 03:57 pm IST	76%	0.174	70%	0.178	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	25 Sept 2026, 04:24 pm IST	76%	0.173	70%	0.177	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	25 Sept 2026, 04:48 pm IST	76%	0.171	70%	0.175	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	25 Sept 2026, 05:09 pm IST	76%	0.175	70%	0.179	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	25 Sept 2026, 05:36 pm IST	74%	0.187	68%	0.190	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	25 Sept 2026, 06:02 pm IST	74%	0.192	68%	0.194	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	25 Sept 2026, 06:58 pm IST	74%	0.191	68%	0.193	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	25 Sept 2026, 07:25 pm IST	72%	0.204	66%	0.208	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	25 Sept 2026, 07:51 pm IST	72%	0.205	66%	0.209	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	25 Sept 2026, 08:16 pm IST	72%	0.205	66%	0.207	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	25 Sept 2026, 08:42 pm IST	72%	0.205	66%	0.207	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	25 Sept 2026, 09:02 pm IST	74%	0.199	68%	0.201	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	25 Sept 2026, 09:47 pm IST	76%	0.190	70%	0.193	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	25 Sept 2026, 10:16 pm IST	76%	0.190	70%	0.193	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	25 Sept 2026, 10:39 pm IST	76%	0.190	72%	0.191	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	25 Sept 2026, 11:02 pm IST	76%	0.190	70%	0.194	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	25 Sept 2026, 11:30 pm IST	78%	0.186	72%	0.189	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	26 Sept 2026, 12:00 am IST	80%	0.179	74%	0.183	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	26 Sept 2026, 12:25 am IST	80%	0.176	74%	0.180	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	26 Sept 2026, 01:05 am IST	80%	0.179	74%	0.184	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	26 Sept 2026, 01:34 am IST	80%	0.179	74%	0.184	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	26 Sept 2026, 02:02 am IST	82%	0.168	76%	0.173	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	26 Sept 2026, 02:35 am IST	82%	0.166	76%	0.172	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	26 Sept 2026, 03:01 am IST	82%	0.163	78%	0.166	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	26 Sept 2026, 03:27 am IST	82%	0.163	78%	0.166	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	26 Sept 2026, 03:52 am IST	84%	0.157	80%	0.161	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	26 Sept 2026, 04:15 am IST	84%	0.155	82%	0.158	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	26 Sept 2026, 04:43 am IST	84%	0.155	82%	0.158	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	26 Sept 2026, 05:10 am IST	86%	0.145	84%	0.148	Complete (50/50)
Innings break	26 Sept 2026, 05:41 am IST	86%	0.149	84%	0.153	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	25 Sept 2026, 07:09 am IST	80%	0.120	82%	0.132	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	25 Sept 2026, 07:38 am IST	80%	0.119	82%	0.128	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	25 Sept 2026, 08:05 am IST	80%	0.119	82%	0.127	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	25 Sept 2026, 08:30 am IST	80%	0.119	82%	0.127	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	25 Sept 2026, 08:54 am IST	80%	0.119	82%	0.127	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	25 Sept 2026, 09:19 am IST	80%	0.121	82%	0.129	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	25 Sept 2026, 09:45 am IST	80%	0.121	82%	0.129	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	25 Sept 2026, 10:09 am IST	80%	0.119	82%	0.127	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	25 Sept 2026, 10:33 am IST	78%	0.134	80%	0.136	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	25 Sept 2026, 10:57 am IST	76%	0.141	78%	0.141	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	25 Sept 2026, 11:22 am IST	78%	0.132	80%	0.134	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	25 Sept 2026, 11:47 am IST	76%	0.143	78%	0.140	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	25 Sept 2026, 12:13 pm IST	76%	0.145	78%	0.142	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	25 Sept 2026, 12:39 pm IST	74%	0.152	76%	0.149	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	25 Sept 2026, 01:07 pm IST	74%	0.150	76%	0.148	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	25 Sept 2026, 01:37 pm IST	74%	0.150	76%	0.148	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	25 Sept 2026, 02:04 pm IST	74%	0.152	76%	0.152	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	25 Sept 2026, 02:36 pm IST	72%	0.161	74%	0.163	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	25 Sept 2026, 03:04 pm IST	72%	0.159	74%	0.162	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	25 Sept 2026, 03:34 pm IST	74%	0.143	76%	0.147	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	25 Sept 2026, 04:01 pm IST	74%	0.143	76%	0.147	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	25 Sept 2026, 04:28 pm IST	74%	0.142	76%	0.145	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	25 Sept 2026, 04:52 pm IST	74%	0.142	76%	0.145	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	25 Sept 2026, 05:14 pm IST	74%	0.146	74%	0.151	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	25 Sept 2026, 05:40 pm IST	72%	0.164	72%	0.167	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	25 Sept 2026, 06:06 pm IST	72%	0.167	72%	0.169	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	25 Sept 2026, 07:02 pm IST	72%	0.166	72%	0.169	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	25 Sept 2026, 07:29 pm IST	74%	0.157	74%	0.157	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	25 Sept 2026, 07:55 pm IST	72%	0.164	72%	0.162	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	25 Sept 2026, 08:21 pm IST	72%	0.165	72%	0.162	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	25 Sept 2026, 08:46 pm IST	72%	0.165	72%	0.162	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	25 Sept 2026, 09:06 pm IST	72%	0.160	74%	0.156	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	25 Sept 2026, 09:51 pm IST	74%	0.151	76%	0.150	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	25 Sept 2026, 10:20 pm IST	74%	0.154	76%	0.154	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	25 Sept 2026, 10:42 pm IST	76%	0.148	78%	0.149	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	25 Sept 2026, 11:06 pm IST	76%	0.150	78%	0.151	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	25 Sept 2026, 11:36 pm IST	78%	0.144	78%	0.146	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	26 Sept 2026, 12:04 am IST	78%	0.139	78%	0.142	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	26 Sept 2026, 12:39 am IST	78%	0.139	78%	0.142	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	26 Sept 2026, 01:10 am IST	78%	0.143	76%	0.147	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	26 Sept 2026, 01:39 am IST	78%	0.145	74%	0.152	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	26 Sept 2026, 02:08 am IST	80%	0.136	76%	0.139	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	26 Sept 2026, 02:39 am IST	80%	0.133	76%	0.138	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	26 Sept 2026, 03:06 am IST	80%	0.133	76%	0.137	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	26 Sept 2026, 03:31 am IST	80%	0.133	76%	0.137	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	26 Sept 2026, 03:56 am IST	82%	0.128	78%	0.131	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	26 Sept 2026, 04:19 am IST	82%	0.129	76%	0.132	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	26 Sept 2026, 04:47 am IST	82%	0.129	76%	0.133	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	26 Sept 2026, 05:14 am IST	84%	0.117	78%	0.118	Complete (50/50)
Mid-chase	26 Sept 2026, 05:45 am IST	84%	0.118	78%	0.121	Complete (50/50)

Rounds analysed

1,816

1,992 settled in total

Team 1 wins (bats first)

48%

871 of 1,816

Team 2 wins (chases)

52%

slight chase edge

Data through

26 Sept 2026, 07:36 am IST

auto-refreshed ~2 min

Every factor, the exact model and the Bookmaker

The 5Five studies as the analysis timer last stored them. Each card says what it counts and when it was computed; the details fold away.

Report of 23 September (PDF)

Every factor against the cards

Nine counts (runs, dots, 1s, 2s, 3s, 4s, 6s, boundaries, wickets) over every run of completed overs, alone, in pairs and in triples, with the last card, the over-to-over trend, the target, runs needed and the winner history, read at ten points in the match. Each cell's winners are scored against what the exact card model expected for the same matches, after one constant lean per checkpoint toward the chaser.

Computed 26 Sept 2026, 06:17 am IST

Families tested

46,22,739

7,82,28,516 cells; 1,761 matches with a full card record

Survive Benjamini-Hochberg

order 1: 0 · order 2: 0 · order 3: 0

Survive Holm

order 1: 0 · order 2: 0 · order 3: 0

Corrected across all orders at once

survive BH · 0 survive Holm

No family survives either correction.

A first-innings count can move the chase only if the chase deal depends on the first innings. Of 80 over-by-over correlations between first-innings and chase cards, 6 pass |z| 2 against 3.6 expected by chance and 0 pass |z| 3 against 0.22; a chase card matches the first-innings card at the same position 14.24% of the time against 14.29% for independent decks (z -0.19). That is more dependence than chance gives; see the deal check below.

Fitted on one half of the history and scored on the other, 0 of the 10 strongest families beat the cards plus the lean by two standard errors and 2 do worse by as much.

Your tables against the cards

AUS won is what happened; cards said is the exact model's expectation for the same matches, given no tie. AUS always bats first. Each table's p asks whether its cells differ from the cards by more than chance once the chaser lean is allowed for.

first-over boundaries · after over 1 · p 0.2

Value	Matches	AUS won	Cards said
0	200	34.0%	36.3%
1	592	40.4%	44.2%
2	595	51.8%	52.4%
3	289	56.4%	60.1%
>= 4	85	77.6%	69.0%

1,761 matches; chi-square 5.93 on 4 df.

first-over sixes · after over 1 · p 0.53

Value	Matches	AUS won	Cards said
0	685	40.4%	42.4%
1	724	47.8%	51.3%
2	296	60.5%	60.0%
>= 3	56	75.0%	71.2%

1,761 matches; chi-square 2.19 on 3 df.

first-over runs, quintiles · after over 1 · p 0.052

Value	Matches	AUS won	Cards said
<= 10	461	31.7%	37.6%
11-12	268	45.1%	45.2%
13-15	437	50.3%	50.6%
16-18	305	51.5%	56.9%
>= 19	290	69.0%	65.5%

1,761 matches; chi-square 9.40 on 4 df.

first-over runs, every value with >= 30 matches · after over 1 · p 0.077

Value	Matches	AUS won	Cards said
<= 5	52	28.8%	29.7%
6	47	38.3%	33.6%
7	62	35.5%	35.6%
8	89	24.7%	37.7%
9	97	28.9%	39.8%
10	114	36.0%	41.9%
11	133	42.1%	44.1%
12	135	48.1%	46.2%
13	152	44.7%	48.4%
14	141	51.8%	50.6%
15	144	54.9%	52.8%
16	111	42.3%	55.0%
17	114	54.4%	57.2%
18	80	60.0%	59.3%
19	97	62.9%	61.5%
20	59	59.3%	63.6%
21	51	80.4%	65.7%
>= 22	83	75.9%	71.4%

1,761 matches; chi-square 25.89 on 17 df.

runs in overs 1+2, quintiles · after over 2 · p 0.71

Value	Matches	AUS won	Cards said
<= 22	415	28.7%	29.8%
23-26	384	41.9%	42.9%
27-29	336	47.6%	51.2%
30-33	334	56.0%	59.7%
>= 34	292	74.3%	73.1%

1,761 matches; chi-square 2.14 on 4 df.

over-1 runs x over-2 runs, tertiles · after over 2 · p 0.76

Value	Matches	AUS won	Cards said
<= 11 x <= 12	231	25.5%	27.7%
<= 11 x 13-16	185	34.1%	39.0%
<= 11 x >= 17	178	44.9%	51.6%
12-16 x <= 12	284	38.7%	39.5%
12-16 x 13-16	226	52.2%	51.9%
12-16 x >= 17	173	60.1%	63.5%
>= 17 x <= 12	213	53.1%	53.2%
>= 17 x 13-16	143	68.5%	66.0%
>= 17 x >= 17	128	77.3%	76.7%

1,761 matches; chi-square 5.02 on 8 df.

chase first-over boundaries · chase, after over 1 · p 0.77

Value	Matches	AUS won	Cards said
0	210	65.7%	65.5%
1	553	55.9%	57.7%
2	585	45.1%	48.9%
3	317	33.4%	35.4%
>= 4	96	28.1%	30.8%

1,761 matches; chi-square 1.81 on 4 df.

chase first-over sixes · chase, after over 1 · p 0.17

Value	Matches	AUS won	Cards said
0	650	56.6%	59.9%
1	732	47.0%	48.7%
2	312	34.3%	37.8%
>= 3	67	37.3%	30.5%

1,761 matches; chi-square 5.08 on 3 df.

chase first-over runs, quintiles · chase, after over 1 · p 0.81

Value	Matches	AUS won	Cards said
<= 9	353	66.9%	68.1%
10-12	372	54.0%	57.4%
13-15	402	46.3%	48.5%
16-18	318	37.7%	41.8%
>= 19	316	32.0%	32.6%

1,761 matches; chi-square 1.62 on 4 df.

chase first-over runs, every value with >= 30 matches · chase, after over 1 · p 0.9

Value	Matches	AUS won	Cards said
<= 5	66	74.2%	70.3%
6	37	64.9%	74.7%
7	75	61.3%	67.0%
8	90	67.8%	67.2%
9	85	65.9%	65.3%
10	99	54.5%	58.1%
11	137	55.5%	57.8%
12	136	52.2%	56.4%
13	119	51.3%	52.1%
14	130	42.3%	48.0%
15	153	45.8%	46.1%
16	113	43.4%	47.0%
17	114	36.0%	41.0%
18	91	33.0%	36.4%
19	86	37.2%	34.6%
20	60	30.0%	35.9%
21	44	29.5%	31.3%
22	51	27.5%	30.8%
>= 23	75	32.0%	29.7%

1,761 matches; chi-square 10.98 on 18 df.

chase runs in overs 1+2, quintiles · chase, after over 2 · p 0.93

Value	Matches	AUS won	Cards said
<= 22	369	70.5%	70.9%
23-26	396	57.3%	58.7%
27-29	303	47.9%	50.7%
30-33	349	34.7%	37.2%
>= 34	344	26.5%	28.1%

1,761 matches; chi-square 0.83 on 4 df.

chase over-1 runs x over-2 runs, tertiles · chase, after over 2 · p 0.51

Value	Matches	AUS won	Cards said
<= 11 x <= 12	205	74.6%	74.2%
<= 11 x 13-16	184	63.6%	65.4%
<= 11 x >= 17	200	48.0%	50.2%
12-16 x <= 12	271	58.3%	58.7%
12-16 x 13-16	194	43.8%	49.9%
12-16 x >= 17	186	33.9%	36.3%
>= 17 x <= 12	216	46.3%	44.8%
>= 17 x 13-16	161	28.6%	29.9%
>= 17 x >= 17	144	18.1%	23.1%

1,761 matches; chi-square 7.24 on 8 df.

The factor space, checkpoint by checkpoint

Each cell reads all / distinct / testable / tested. Distinct drops a combination that splits the matches exactly like one already listed; testable needs two cells of 30 matches or more.

Point	Matches	Singles	Pairs	Triples
Before the match	1,917	9 / 8 / 8 / 8	36 / 27 / 25 / 15	84 / 38 / 21 / 5
After over 1	1,761	13 / 12 / 10 / 10	45 / 45 / 45 / 45	120 / 120 / 120 / 108
After over 2	1,761	33 / 33 / 29 / 29	406 / 406 / 406 / 406	3,654 / 3,654 / 3,645 / 3,234
After over 3	1,761	61 / 61 / 56 / 56	1,540 / 1,540 / 1,540 / 1,539	27,720 / 27,720 / 27,549 / 24,450
After over 4	1,761	98 / 98 / 92 / 92	4,186 / 4,186 / 4,186 / 4,185	1,25,580 / 1,25,580 / 1,24,673 / 1,12,484
Innings break	1,761	144 / 144 / 137 / 137	9,316 / 9,316 / 9,316 / 9,313	4,19,220 / 4,19,220 / 4,15,189 / 3,77,846
Chase, after over 1	1,761	158 / 155 / 146 / 146	10,878 / 10,585 / 10,585 / 10,582	5,29,396 / 5,08,080 / 5,03,042 / 4,63,017
Chase, after over 2	1,761	178 / 175 / 165 / 165	13,861 / 13,530 / 13,530 / 13,527	7,62,355 / 7,35,130 / 7,28,648 / 6,80,212
Chase, after over 3	1,749	206 / 203 / 192 / 192	18,721 / 18,336 / 18,336 / 18,329	11,98,144 / 11,61,280 / 11,50,082 / 10,85,114
Chase, after over 4	1,542	243 / 240 / 228 / 228	26,335 / 25,878 / 25,878 / 25,863	20,01,460 / 19,49,476 / 18,96,448 / 17,91,402
All checkpoints		1,143 / 1,129 / 1,063 / 1,063	85,324 / 83,849 / 83,847 / 83,804	50,67,733 / 49,30,298 / 48,49,417 / 45,37,872

Behind those factors sits the full history they summarise, one innings from a fresh deck:

Balls dealt	Orderings (7^n)	Possible from one 70-card deck	Card combinations
6	1,17,649	1,17,649	924
12	1.38e10	1.38e10	18,515
18	1.63e15	1.63e15	1,22,584
24	1.92e20	1.91e20	4,04,439
30	2.25e25	2.22e25	7,71,155

71 exact twin keys (the same cards in order, or the same composition) at 9 checkpoints; the most matches sharing one key is 18, under the 30 a cell needs, so twins could not be tested as factors.

The backtest by order, against fair-deal simulations

Each simulation redraws every outcome from the cards and the lean and reruns the whole scan, so the overlap between related families is part of the null. Real counts beside the simulations' mean and standard deviation.

Order	Tested	p < 0.05: real vs simulated	p < 0.001: real vs simulated	Smallest p	Simulations
Singles	1,063	96 vs 53.6 (sd 8.4)	10 vs 1.3 (sd 1.0)	2.0e-4	20
Pairs	83,804	7,828 vs 4,189 (sd 755)	349 vs 80.9 (sd 31.5)	3.4e-6	20
Triples	45,37,872	3,26,770 vs 2,25,300 (sd 35,130)	9,447 vs 4,749 (sd 1,514)	2.2e-8	20
All orders together	46,22,739	3,34,694 vs 2,29,500 (sd 35,840)	9,806 vs 4,831 (sd 1,540)	2.2e-8	20

The survivors, and each of their factors alone

No family survives Benjamini-Hochberg at any order.

Replication from one half of the history to the other

The top families ranked on one half, tested on the other. By chance a twentieth fall below p 0.05 there, half below 0.5, and the median is 0.5.

Order	Direction	Ranked on	Testable there	p < 0.05 there	p < 0.5 there	Median p there
Singles	earlier to later	1,063	20 of 20	0	11	0.403
Singles	later to earlier	1,063	20 of 20	1	12	0.465
Pairs	earlier to later	83,800	20 of 20	2	11	0.484
Pairs	later to earlier	83,793	20 of 20	4	11	0.465
Triples	earlier to later	23,69,574	18 of 20	0	7	0.530
Triples	later to earlier	24,20,148	18 of 20	0	7	0.629
All orders together	earlier to later	24,54,437	18 of 20	0	7	0.530
All orders together	later to earlier	25,05,004	18 of 20	0	7	0.629

The strongest families as predictors

Each family stacked on the exact model, fitted on one half and scored on the other. Brier difference per match against the cards alone and against the cards plus the lean; negative is better.

Family	Point	Chosen as	Matches	Stack Brier	Cards Brier	vs cards (t)	vs cards and lean (t)
boundaries in first-innings overs 2-3 and 1s in first-innings overs 2-5 and runs needed	Chase, after over 3	top 10 overall by BH q	1,749	0.1131	0.1129	+0.00013 (+0.23)	+0.00010 (+0.33)
runs in first-innings overs 2-3 and 3s in first-innings overs 2-5 and 4s in first-innings overs 4-5	Chase, after over 3	top 10 overall by BH q	1,749	0.1132	0.1129	+0.00022 (+0.39)	+0.00019 (+0.52)
runs in first-innings over 2 and boundaries in first-innings overs 2-5 and boundaries in first-innings over 4	Chase, after over 1	top 10 overall by BH q	1,761	0.1546	0.1527	+0.00188 (+2.22)	+0.00177 (+3.49)
2s in first-innings overs 1-2 and dots in first-innings overs 2-3 and wickets in first-innings over 5	Chase, after over 1	top 10 overall by BH q	1,761	0.1516	0.1527	-0.00114 (-1.05)	-0.00125 (-1.47)
runs in first-innings over 2 and boundaries in first-innings overs 2-5 and boundaries in first-innings over 4	Innings break	top 10 overall by BH q	1,761	0.1676	0.1649	+0.00277 (+2.76)	+0.00255 (+3.55)
runs in first-innings over 2 and 4s in first-innings overs 2-4 and 3s in first-innings overs 2-5	Chase, after over 1	top 10 overall by BH q	1,761	0.1518	0.1527	-0.00089 (-0.86)	-0.00100 (-1.25)
runs in first-innings over 2 and 4s in first-innings overs 2-4 and 3s in first-innings overs 2-5	Innings break	top 10 overall by BH q	1,761	0.1641	0.1649	-0.00079 (-0.76)	-0.00101 (-1.25)
2s in first-innings overs 1-3 and runs in first-innings overs 2-3 and runs needed	Chase, after over 4	top 10 overall by BH q	1,542	0.0966	0.0955	+0.00103 (+1.76)	+0.00012 (+0.65)
runs in first-innings over 1 and 4s in first-innings overs 2-3 and 4s in first-innings overs 3-4	Chase, after over 3	top 10 overall by BH q	1,749	0.1125	0.1129	-0.00044 (-0.76)	-0.00047 (-1.20)
boundaries in first-innings overs 1-2 and runs in first-innings overs 2-4 and runs in first-innings overs 4-5	Innings break	top 10 overall by BH q	1,761	0.1651	0.1649	+0.00019 (+0.21)	-0.00003 (-0.05)

The deal check: is the chase dealt apart from the first innings?

Computed 26 Sept 2026, 06:23 am IST

Chase card against the first-innings card	Pairs	Same card	Independent decks	z
At the same position	21,924	14.24%	14.29%	-0.19
At the mirrored position	21,924	14.08%	14.29%	-0.87

First-innings dots, overs 2-3	Matches	Chase runs, first 12 cards	z vs a fresh deck	IND won
0 dots	239	28.23	+1.90	49.8%
1-3 dots	1,460	27.64	+1.26	48.5%
4+ dots	128	28.34	+1.59	70.3%

1,827 matches with a complete card record, ties included.

The exact card model, the 64-neighbour blend and the exact-twin rule

The exact-twin rule: when the state on screen has happened before, answer with what happened then instead of blending in neighbours. A twin is a finished match that stood in exactly this state, by the live model's own features, by the score, or by the exact cards dealt; k is how many twins the rule needs before it answers with their outcome.

Computed 26 Sept 2026, 06:22 am IST

Every model on the same 1,01,077 moments from 1,740 matches, 7 Aug 2026 to 26 Sept 2026; each moment sees only matches settled before it, and tied matches are left out. The exact card model beats the blend by 0.01015 Brier a match (t -8.07). Every twins-first variant scores worse than the blend it replaces (t +1.13 to +42.30).

Model	Brier	Log loss	Picks the winner	vs the blend, per match (t)
Exact card model	0.1703	0.5006	73.08%	-0.01015 (-8.07)
64-neighbour blend (live)	0.1808	0.5323	71.49%	reference
Twins first, k = 1	0.2140	1.8085	70.14%	+0.03318 (+42.30)
Twins first, k = 3	0.1842	0.6249	71.30%	+0.00341 (+17.00)
Twins first, k = 10	0.1811	0.5345	71.47%	+0.00031 (+6.55)
Twins first, k = 30	0.1808	0.5324	71.48%	+0.00003 (+1.13)
Score twins first, k = 1	0.2136	1.7059	69.09%	+0.03258 (+35.59)
Card twins first, k = 1	0.2032	1.3638	70.64%	+0.02230 (+35.51)

On the 35,584moments that have at least one twin by the live model's features, the case the rule is for, the Brier score is 0.2164 for the cards, 0.2215 for the blend and 0.3159for the twins' own rate.

Only the moments that have twins

Twin by	At least	Moments	Matches	Mean twins	Twins' own rate	Blend	Exact cards
Cards dealt	1	22,353	1,740	17.9	0.3257	0.2247	0.2195
Cards dealt	10	6,295	1,700	57.3	0.2413	0.2365	0.2325
Live model's features	1	35,584	1,740	17.7	0.3159	0.2215	0.2164
Live model's features	3	17,472	1,740	34.8	0.2531	0.2333	0.2291
Live model's features	10	10,059	1,701	57.0	0.2421	0.2391	0.2358
Live model's features	30	6,306	1,561	80.1	0.2463	0.2460	0.2423
Score	1	64,088	1,740	15.5	0.2604	0.2087	0.2018
Score	10	25,561	1,701	33.8	0.2443	0.2374	0.2331
Score	30	7,989	1,561	71.1	0.2471	0.2465	0.2428

Brier score on each subset; lower is better.

Where twins exist, stage by stage

Stage	Live model's features	Score	Cards dealt
First innings, over 1	98.1%	98.1%	88.8%
First innings, over 2	58.5%	93.6%	38.2%
First innings, over 3	39.7%	90.1%	16.2%
First innings, over 4	32.4%	87.9%	9.7%
First innings, over 5	29.4%	87.0%	7.0%
Innings break	98.2%	98.2%	98.2%
Chase, over 1	57.2%	57.2%	34.3%
Chase, over 2	4.8%	30.6%	2.1%
Chase, over 3	2.2%	22.8%	0.9%
Chase, over 4	1.6%	20.7%	0.4%
Chase, over 5	1.2%	18.7%	0.2%

Share of moments with at least one twin. Twins cluster early in each innings, where every model is least certain.

The Bookmaker counts the cards

Every ACTIVE match1 back quote, attributed to the state it was set for: the latest ball whose scoreboard frame arrived before the quote appeared. Its implied chance, given no tie, against the exact card model's.

Computed 26 Sept 2026, 06:23 am IST

Implied against exact	Quotes	Correlation	Mean absolute gap	Implied minus exact
At the state the quote was set for	33,959	0.9976	0.0128	+1.17 pts
One ball earlier	33,959	0.8755	0.0641	+2.96 pts
One ball later	33,959	0.8515	0.0646	+1.25 pts

37,724 quotes attributed; the table holds the ones with a ball on both sides. The book is the exact model plus a margin: +1.11 pts on AUS and +1.10 pts on IND. It quotes only the favourite in 91.9% of 33,903 priced states; with both sides quoted, the overround is a median 1.01%.

The old 80-90% candidate paired the model after a ball with the quote still on screen, usually set one ball earlier: 345 bets at +10.82% a unit (t +4.19). The same rule at equal information: 279 bets at +0.09% a unit (t +0.03). At equal information no model's first bet per match clears two standard errors.

The margin, stage by stage

Quote set	AUS quotes	AUS margin	IND quotes	IND margin
Before the match	1,860	+0.52 pts	1,865	+0.52 pts
After over 1	925	+0.81 pts	1,081	+1.18 pts
After over 2	1,010	+1.28 pts	957	+1.05 pts
After over 3	961	+1.35 pts	976	+1.35 pts
After over 4	929	+1.55 pts	986	+1.69 pts
Innings break	883	+1.79 pts	872	+1.78 pts
Chase, over 1	879	+1.74 pts	834	+1.71 pts
Chase, over 2	862	+1.02 pts	814	+0.98 pts
Chase, over 3	4,961	+1.06 pts	4,665	+0.97 pts
Chase, over 4	4,081	+0.99 pts	3,681	+0.97 pts
Chase, over 5	2,116	+1.23 pts	1,526	+1.28 pts

Mean implied chance minus the exact model's, in points.

When the book publishes, and how long a stale quote stays

Polls bracket each new quote, so its delay after the state's frame is a range: the median lower and upper bounds.

Quote	Polled by	Quotes	Published after the frame, median (s)	Still on screen at the next frame
Every quote	both	37,724	0.32 to 6.88	52.0%
Every quote	data2 snapshot (proxy)	34,128	0.50 to 6.98	51.3%
Every quote	market poll	3,596	-0.54 to 5.97	58.8%
Before the match	data2 snapshot (proxy)	3,362	—	0.5%
Before the match	market poll	363	—	0.8%
End of a first-innings over	data2 snapshot (proxy)	7,056	6.14 to 11.97	52.4%
End of a first-innings over	market poll	763	5.46 to 11.65	60.8%
First innings, mid-over	data2 snapshot (proxy)	5	-0.73 to 51.18	80.0%
First innings, mid-over	market poll	1	-1.46 to 29.33	100.0%
Innings break	data2 snapshot (proxy)	1,585	8.09 to 147.94	0.7%
Innings break	market poll	170	128.56 to 133.94	0.6%
End of a chase over	data2 snapshot (proxy)	3,060	6.76 to 12.54	52.1%
End of a chase over	market poll	328	6.18 to 12.32	64.0%
Chase, per ball	data2 snapshot (proxy)	19,059	-1.75 to 3.87	64.0%
Chase, per ball	market poll	1,971	-2.65 to 3.44	72.9%
Chase, mid-over	data2 snapshot (proxy)	1	1.58 to 51.75	100.0%

52.04% of quotes (19,632 of 37,724) were still on screen when the next ball's frame arrived, for at most a median 2.04 s. Polls run a median 5.89 s apart. 567 quotes were seen open by a poll after the next frame, and 42 of those at a price wrong for the new state. For 19,036 quotes no poll fell between the next frame and the replacement, so the capture cannot say whether the book had suspended. The site's rules delete bets made during a delay in suspending.

The old 80-90% candidate, stale against equal information

Pairing	Bets	Mean odds	Implied	Won	Return per unit	t
The quote on screen at the ball (stale)	345	1.307	77.27%	85.22%	+10.82%	+4.19
A quote set after the ball (equal information)	279	1.271	79.40%	79.03%	+0.09%	+0.03

How many balls the stale quote trailed the model, over the usable matches: 317 bets 1 ball behind, 11 bets 2 balls behind, 1 bet 6 balls behind, 1 bet 7 balls behind, 1 bet 13 balls behind, 1 bet 20 balls behind.

The ball the price had not seen	Bets	Won	Return per unit	t
1 to 3 runs	66	72.73%	-8.76%	-1.24
dot	54	87.04%	+10.39%	+1.72
wicket	64	84.38%	+9.87%	+1.60
boundary	148	89.86%	+19.03%	+5.48

Every model at equal information

A quote set after the model's ball, still showing 2 s later and before the next ball. Return per unit over decided bets; a tie voids the bet.

Model	Population	First bet per match			Every priced state			80-90% band, first bet
Model	Population	Bets	Return	t	Bets	Return	t	Bets	Return	t
Exact card model	all matches	335	+0.30%	+0.06	969	-2.57%	-0.64	68	+2.18%	+0.38
Exact card model	64-neighbour period	116	+13.09%	+1.46	121	+12.64%	+1.47	4	+37.00%	—
64-neighbour blend	64-neighbour period	977	+0.53%	+0.20	4,067	-1.33%	-0.59	279	+0.09%	+0.03
Exact, with the chaser lean	all matches	1,751	+2.69%	+1.12	12,681	+1.54%	+0.74	607	+0.93%	+0.51
Exact, with the chaser lean	64-neighbour period	1,090	+2.14%	+0.70	7,671	+0.10%	+0.04	360	+1.97%	+0.86

Calibration: the book against the models

States	Count	Matches	Exact	Exact with lean	64-neighbour	Book
States with a fitted lean	30,354	1,687	0.16698	0.16710	—	0.16711
Every priced state	32,312	1,790	0.16858	—	—	0.16883
Both sides quoted	2,439	1,682	0.25004	0.24990	—	0.25000
States the 64-neighbour model priced	17,872	1,049	0.16070	0.16092	0.17050	0.16083
Both sides quoted, 64-neighbour priced	491	366	0.24973	0.25146	0.25698	0.25000

Brier score on the first tradeable quote of each state; lower is better. The book is normalised over both sides when both were quoted, otherwise it is the quoted side's 1/odds, margin included.

The paper trader's win-model fills, stale against equal information

Arm	Fill	Fills	Decided	Won	Mean odds	Return per unit	Ledger P&L
every	unattributable	5	3	66.7%	1.540	-5.00%	-₹7,117
every	equal information	90	87	75.9%	1.547	+14.08%	+₹1,08,407
every	stale: quote priced an earlier state	109	105	75.2%	1.452	+4.32%	₹0
value	unattributable	3	2	100.0%	1.517	+32.00%	+₹3,445
value	equal information	76	75	68.0%	1.601	+5.63%	+₹37,283
value	stale: quote priced an earlier state	60	57	70.2%	1.545	+2.86%	-₹179

The chaser lean

IND bats second. Whether it wins more often than the cards say, measured three ways: the result against the exact model at every checkpoint, the deal itself against a fresh deck, and a bet on the lean at equal information.

Computed 26 Sept 2026, 06:17 am IST

IND won 52.07% of decided matches. AUS won less than the cards said at 10 of 10 checkpoints, and the lean points the same way in both halves of the history at 10. The chase's first twelve cards run +0.34 runs against a fresh deck (z +2.23), mostly in sixes (14.75%, z +1.97). Backing the lean at equal information, first bet per match: 1,751 bets, 875 won, 811 lost, 65 void, +₹45,400 at a flat ₹1,000 (+2.69% a bet). Not significant: t +1.12, under two standard errors.

AUS against the cards, checkpoint by checkpoint

Point	Matches	AUS won	Cards said	Lean (log-odds)	Points at even	z	Lean, first half	Lean, second half
Before the match	1,917	47.57%	50.00%	-0.0971	-2.43	-2.12	-0.1354	-0.0549
After over 1	1,761	47.93%	49.91%	-0.0825	-2.06	-1.69	-0.0885	-0.0765
After over 2	1,761	47.93%	49.60%	-0.0737	-1.84	-1.47	-0.0926	-0.0547
After over 3	1,761	47.93%	49.68%	-0.0827	-2.07	-1.59	-0.1104	-0.0549
After over 4	1,761	47.93%	50.08%	-0.1135	-2.83	-2.07	-0.1779	-0.0483
Innings break	1,761	47.93%	50.46%	-0.1559	-3.89	-2.64	-0.2279	-0.0813
Chase, after over 1	1,761	47.93%	50.23%	-0.1554	-3.88	-2.51	-0.2104	-0.0993
Chase, after over 2	1,761	47.93%	49.65%	-0.1293	-3.23	-1.98	-0.1443	-0.1139
Chase, after over 3	1,749	48.26%	49.66%	-0.1241	-3.10	-1.74	-0.1285	-0.1195
Chase, after over 4	1,542	54.73%	55.93%	-0.1260	-3.15	-1.53	-0.2440	-0.0085

Decided matches with a complete card record, given no tie. The lean is one constant log-odds shift fitted at each checkpoint; negative favours the chaser.

Is the deal fair? Twelve cards at a time against a fresh deck

Computed 26 Sept 2026, 06:23 am IST

Cards	Runs	Fresh deck	z	Sixes (z)	All ranks, chi-square
innings 1, cards 1-12	27.27	27.43	-1.06	14.09% (-0.81)	4.09 on 6 df
innings 1, cards 13-24	27.56	27.43	+0.87	14.49% (+0.85)	4.58 on 6 df
chase, cards 1-12	27.77	27.43	+2.23	14.75% (+1.97)	7.60 on 6 df

1,827 matches. A fresh 70-card deck gives each of the seven ranks 14.29%. The chase window is one of several looked at, so its z is not a test on its own; the results after 23 September are its forward test.

Backtest P&L in rupees

Every win-model strategy replayed over the capture: a flat ₹1,000 a bet, and a balance compounded at 5% a bet from ₹1,00,000 (minimum stake ₹100). A tie voids the bet and returns the stake.

Computed 26 Sept 2026, 06:23 am IST

Strategy	Bets	Won	Lost	Void	Flat P&L	Per bet	Compounded, final	Worst drawdown	Longest losing run
The paper trader's rules, replayed
exact · value2026-08-31 13:42 to 2026-09-26 01:47 IST	118	68	44	6	+₹15,390	+13.74%	₹1,90,614	36.6%	6
exact · every2026-08-31 12:30 to 2026-09-26 05:33 IST	1,089	635	414	40	+₹27,010	+2.57%	₹1,52,008	84.2%	10
64-neighbour · value2026-08-31 12:37 to 2026-09-26 05:54 IST	985	581	364	40	+₹8,430	+0.89%	₹68,407	74.6%	9
64-neighbour · every2026-08-31 12:30 to 2026-09-26 05:34 IST	1,099	653	405	41	+₹27,180	+2.57%	₹1,58,403	79.6%	10
At equal information
exact · first bet per match2026-08-06 20:20 to 2026-09-26 01:47 IST	335	195	129	11	+₹960	+0.30%	₹77,677	58.9%	7
exact with the chaser lean · first bet per match2026-08-09 05:41 to 2026-09-26 05:26 IST	1,751	875	811	65	+₹45,400	+2.69%	₹1,61,396	67.4%	9
64-neighbour · first bet per match2026-08-31 12:37 to 2026-09-26 05:54 IST	977	574	364	39	+₹5,000	+0.53%	₹57,773	75.0%	9
old 80-90% rule (64-neighbour)2026-08-31 15:31 to 2026-09-26 02:59 IST	279	211	56	12	+₹240	+0.09%	₹91,996	32.4%	3
Look-ahead: the model had seen one more ball than the price
old 80-90% rule on the stale quotelook-ahead, not bettable2026-08-31 14:04 to 2026-09-26 05:55 IST	345	294	51	0	+₹37,320	+10.82%	₹5,81,617	20.4%	3

The look-ahead row is the old 80-90% rule scored on the quote still on screen at the ball, a price set before the ball the model had seen. No bet could have been struck at it; it is here to show what the stale pairing was worth on paper.

Flat P&L week by week

Strategy	W32	W33	W34	W35	W36	W37	W38	W39
paper rules: exact · value	—	—	—	—	+₹1,780	+₹9,060	+₹2,580	+₹1,970
paper rules: exact · every	—	—	—	—	-₹12,880	-₹7,070	+₹26,860	+₹20,100
paper rules: 64-neighbour · value	—	—	—	—	-₹14,030	+₹8,310	+₹7,300	+₹6,850
paper rules: 64-neighbour · every	—	—	—	—	-₹15,060	+₹7,120	+₹17,890	+₹17,230
equal information: exact · first bet per match	-₹5,150	+₹820	-₹2,910	-₹2,690	-₹1,730	+₹8,070	+₹2,580	+₹1,970
equal information: exact with the chaser lean · first bet per match	-₹2,300	+₹8,120	+₹11,820	+₹4,560	+₹7,580	+₹12,730	+₹14,380	-₹11,490
equal information: 64-neighbour · first bet per match	—	—	—	—	-₹13,030	+₹4,320	+₹7,250	+₹6,460
equal information: old 80-90% rule (64-neighbour)	—	—	—	—	+₹10	-₹140	-₹180	+₹550
look-ahead: old 80-90% rule on the stale quote (not bettable)	—	—	—	—	+₹10,780	+₹8,430	+₹13,230	+₹4,880

ISO weeks. A dash is a week the strategy placed no bet.

Does a run of balls ever repeat?

Every run of K consecutive balls, at every position in every match, searched against every position in every other match — not just the openings. Both what was scored and which card was dealt. A run recurring is only interesting if it recurs more often than a shuffled deck would produce it, so the count chance gives sits beside every observed count. Counted through 26 Sept 2026, 06:51 am IST.

Ball outcomes

Match pairs counts each pair of rounds once, so a single long coincidence is not counted again at every shorter length.

Run	Positions searched	Runs in 2+ matches	Match pairs	Expected by chance	Observed	Ratio
5	93,772	16,332	2,15,364	2,61,790.1	2,64,381	1×
6	90,009	21,088	30,129	34,462.5	34,847	1×
7	86,246	4,185	3,852	4,520.9	4,446	1×
8	82,492	588	505	590.9	590	1×
9	78,739	85	68	76.9	85	1.1×
10	74,986	17	15	10	17	1.7×
11	71,234	2	2	1.3	2	1.5×
12	67,483	0	0	0.2	0	0×

Card values

Runs are searched inside unbroken stretches of the deal only. A round that lost an over has a hole in its card stream, and running across it would join two cards that were never dealt together.

Run	Positions searched	Runs in 2+ matches	Match pairs	Expected by chance	Observed	Ratio
5	70,130	15,401	1,24,952	1,46,407.9	1,47,037	1×
6	63,564	12,044	15,100	17,184.5	17,125	1×
7	58,128	1,872	1,724	2,053.3	1,944	0.9×
8	53,343	219	190	247.1	219	0.9×
9	48,957	29	23	29.7	29	1×
10	44,875	6	5	3.6	6	1.7×
11	41,091	1	1	0.4	1	2.5×
12	37,571	0	0	0.1	0	0×

This round's runs, found earlier — ball outcomes · round 7528796729

Every run of balls in this round that also occurred in an earlier match, with what followed it there. Earlier means first seen earlier, not a lower round id — the provider hands ids out in no time order.

Run	Found in past	Comparable	Same next ball	Rate	Chance
7	2	2	0	0%	14.3%
6	34	31	2	6.5%	14.3%
5	298	276	34	12.3%	14.3%

Longest runs, and where they sat

Run	Here at	Past round	There at	Followed there	Followed here	Same path
4\|6\|1\|3\|1\|ww\|3	8	7361001016	2	2	1	No
ww\|2\|0\|4\|6\|ww\|6	17	4835551079	10	2	1	No

This round's runs, found earlier — card values · round 7528796729

Every run of cards in this round that also occurred in an earlier match, with what followed it there. Earlier means first seen earlier, not a lower round id — the provider hands ids out in no time order.

Run	Found in past	Comparable	Same next card	Rate	Chance
6	2	0	0	—	14.3%
5	53	42	2	4.8%	14.3%

Longest runs, and where they sat

Run	Here at	Past round	There at	Followed there	Followed here	Same path
10\|10\|3\|3\|2\|6	11	6028174509	42	4	—	—
K\|3\|A\|4\|10\|2	43	4784813213	55	—	6	—

Card deal (the 70-card shoe)

Observed placed deals only. Rank frequencies describe the seven-rank shoe; they are not a prediction or recommendation.

Rank	Dealt balls	Share
A	14,115	14.26%
2	14,221	14.37%
3	13,899	14.04%
4	14,288	14.44%
6	14,303	14.45%
10	14,242	14.39%
K	13,912	14.06%

Forward log — candidates predicting before the result

Each prediction is written from a capture that precedes its outcome and is never rewritten. A candidate only becomes an edge if it holds here, across two reviews, against the price rather than a coin flip.

cricketv3_after_two_ausPredicts INDCandidate

After the two rounds just played were both won by AUS, back IND to win the next round.

Predictions: 152
Decided: 146 (5 void)
Hit rate: 43.8%
Needs (from the price): 50.6%

-6.7 points against the price, -0.134 per unit staked. Last settled 26 Sept 2026, 07:37 am IST.

Scored against the pre-match Bookmaker price for IND on screen once both results are recorded, not against 50%. History before go-live: 62.1% of 253 against a price needing 50.5%. Until 2026-09-25 the log read the two results recorded latest before the first IND quote, which were rounds k-2 and k-3. Read on the two rounds just played, it won 47.4% of 135 decided rounds from go-live to 2026-09-25 13:04 UTC.

cricketv3_over_total_noPredicts NOCandidate

On every Fancy over-total line, back NO: the team total at the end of that over finishes strictly below the lay line. A total on the line loses both sides.

Predictions: 5,945
Decided: 5,926
Hit rate: 46.8%
Needs (from the price): 50%

36 settled on an over the innings never finished. The site settles those on the shorter innings rather than voiding them, so they count — but they are named here rather than absorbed into the rate.

-3.2 points against the price, -0.065 per unit staked. Last settled 26 Sept 2026, 07:58 am IST.

NO at lay rate R pays 1 + 100/R, so the bar is 100/price: 50% at rate 100, the only rate 5Five has quoted, and the site charges no commission. The book keeps a total that lands on the line, 8.3% of lines, and that is its margin. Measured 2026-09-25 under the book's rule, on proven totals: NO won 46.7% of 5,629 lines.

Winner-sequence rules

Every cricketv3 rule after a run of the same winner. Historical hit rates are compared with the pre-match price; a verdict clears the price only when the row is sufficient.

After N wins by SIDE → predicts X	Triggers	Hit %	Price needs %	Lift vs price	Verdict
after 1 wins by AUS → predicts break	489	51.53%	50.65%	+0.88 pp	within noise
after 1 wins by AUS → predicts continue	489	48.47%	50.65%	-2.19 pp	within noise
after 2 wins by AUS → predicts break	237	59.07%	50.81%	+8.26 pp	clears the price
after 2 wins by AUS → predicts continue	237	40.93%	50.81%	-9.88 pp	within noise
after 3 wins by AUS → predicts break	97	51.55%	50.51%	+1.04 pp	insufficient
after 3 wins by AUS → predicts continue	97	48.45%	50.51%	-2.05 pp	insufficient
after 4 wins by AUS → predicts break	47	53.19%	50.61%	+2.58 pp	insufficient
after 4 wins by AUS → predicts continue	47	46.81%	50.61%	-3.80 pp	insufficient
after 5 wins by AUS → predicts break	22	45.45%	50.51%	-5.05 pp	insufficient
after 5 wins by AUS → predicts continue	22	54.55%	50.51%	+4.04 pp	insufficient
after 6 wins by AUS → predicts break	23	52.17%	52.33%	-0.16 pp	insufficient
after 6 wins by AUS → predicts continue	23	47.83%	52.33%	-4.51 pp	insufficient
after 1 wins by IND → predicts break	489	49.49%	50.64%	-1.15 pp	within noise
after 1 wins by IND → predicts continue	489	50.51%	50.64%	-0.13 pp	within noise
after 2 wins by IND → predicts break	246	50.00%	50.54%	-0.54 pp	within noise
after 2 wins by IND → predicts continue	246	50.00%	50.54%	-0.54 pp	within noise
after 3 wins by IND → predicts break	123	44.72%	50.72%	-6.00 pp	within noise
after 3 wins by IND → predicts continue	123	55.28%	50.72%	+4.56 pp	within noise
after 4 wins by IND → predicts break	68	45.59%	50.51%	-4.92 pp	insufficient
after 4 wins by IND → predicts continue	68	54.41%	50.51%	+3.90 pp	insufficient
after 5 wins by IND → predicts break	37	48.65%	50.79%	-2.14 pp	insufficient
after 5 wins by IND → predicts continue	37	51.35%	50.79%	+0.56 pp	insufficient
after 6 wins by IND → predicts break	43	44.19%	50.51%	-6.32 pp	insufficient
after 6 wins by IND → predicts continue	43	55.81%	50.51%	+5.31 pp	insufficient

First-innings event counts vs winner

Does a first-innings count predict the winner? AUS win rate is shown beside the overall base, price-independent lift, and the two-standard-error bar.

Cards said: the exact card model at the innings break, the mean chance team 1 (AUS) wins given no tie, over the priced rounds, those whose card record proves the state. These rounds hold no ties, so both columns leave them out.

Event	Value	Rounds	AUS wins	AUS win %	Cards said %	Priced	Base %	Lift	2 SE	Verdict
boundaries	0	2	1	50.00%	—	0	47.79%	+2.21 pp	+70.71 pp	insufficient
boundaries	1	1	0	0.00%	—	0	47.79%	-47.79 pp	+100.00 pp	insufficient
boundaries	2	3	0	0.00%	—	0	47.79%	-47.79 pp	+57.74 pp	insufficient
boundaries	3	5	1	20.00%	0.34%	4	47.79%	-27.79 pp	+44.72 pp	insufficient
boundaries	4	19	0	0.00%	2.96%	18	47.79%	-47.79 pp	+22.94 pp	insufficient
boundaries	5	69	4	5.80%	6.96%	63	47.79%	-42.00 pp	+12.04 pp	insufficient
boundaries	6	140	25	17.86%	14.08%	138	47.79%	-29.94 pp	+8.45 pp	clears 2 SE
boundaries	7	258	62	24.03%	27.20%	251	47.79%	-23.76 pp	+6.23 pp	clears 2 SE
boundaries	8	376	151	40.16%	39.70%	373	47.79%	-7.64 pp	+5.16 pp	clears 2 SE
boundaries	9	369	191	51.76%	55.87%	368	47.79%	+3.97 pp	+5.21 pp	within noise
boundaries	10	302	204	67.55%	71.26%	302	47.79%	+19.75 pp	+5.75 pp	clears 2 SE
boundaries	11	154	122	79.22%	85.01%	154	47.79%	+31.43 pp	+8.06 pp	clears 2 SE
boundaries	12	86	77	89.53%	90.60%	86	47.79%	+41.74 pp	+10.78 pp	insufficient
boundaries	13	24	23	95.83%	96.86%	24	47.79%	+48.04 pp	+20.41 pp	insufficient
boundaries	14	5	5	100.00%	98.64%	5	47.79%	+52.21 pp	+44.72 pp	insufficient
boundaries	15	1	1	100.00%	99.50%	1	47.79%	+52.21 pp	+100.00 pp	insufficient
dots	0	7	4	57.14%	91.60%	1	47.79%	+9.35 pp	+37.80 pp	insufficient
dots	1	37	27	72.97%	79.56%	34	47.79%	+25.18 pp	+16.44 pp	insufficient
dots	2	132	92	69.70%	72.54%	129	47.79%	+21.90 pp	+8.70 pp	clears 2 SE
dots	3	370	217	58.65%	63.45%	363	47.79%	+10.85 pp	+5.20 pp	clears 2 SE
dots	4	438	228	52.05%	52.71%	435	47.79%	+4.26 pp	+4.78 pp	within noise
dots	5	443	192	43.34%	45.57%	440	47.79%	-4.45 pp	+4.75 pp	within noise
dots	6	260	82	31.54%	34.40%	259	47.79%	-16.26 pp	+6.20 pp	clears 2 SE
dots	7	96	22	22.92%	24.98%	96	47.79%	-24.88 pp	+10.21 pp	insufficient
dots	8	27	3	11.11%	16.59%	26	47.79%	-36.68 pp	+19.25 pp	insufficient
dots	9	4	0	0.00%	11.34%	4	47.79%	-47.79 pp	+50.00 pp	insufficient
fours	0	10	3	30.00%	25.52%	6	47.79%	-17.79 pp	+31.62 pp	insufficient
fours	1	36	8	22.22%	24.51%	34	47.79%	-25.57 pp	+16.67 pp	insufficient
fours	2	154	48	31.17%	34.85%	144	47.79%	-16.63 pp	+8.06 pp	clears 2 SE
fours	3	354	138	38.98%	40.60%	350	47.79%	-8.81 pp	+5.31 pp	clears 2 SE
fours	4	459	214	46.62%	48.27%	455	47.79%	-1.17 pp	+4.67 pp	within noise
fours	5	433	235	54.27%	55.49%	431	47.79%	+6.48 pp	+4.81 pp	clears 2 SE
fours	6	252	143	56.75%	62.50%	251	47.79%	+8.95 pp	+6.30 pp	clears 2 SE
fours	7	89	56	62.92%	69.12%	89	47.79%	+15.13 pp	+10.60 pp	insufficient
fours	8	25	21	84.00%	74.13%	25	47.79%	+36.21 pp	+20.00 pp	insufficient
fours	9	2	1	50.00%	81.44%	2	47.79%	+2.21 pp	+70.71 pp	insufficient
sixes	0	11	2	18.18%	8.80%	7	47.79%	-29.61 pp	+30.15 pp	insufficient
sixes	1	25	2	8.00%	9.70%	23	47.79%	-39.79 pp	+20.00 pp	insufficient
sixes	2	159	24	15.09%	17.39%	153	47.79%	-32.70 pp	+7.93 pp	clears 2 SE
sixes	3	331	92	27.79%	28.31%	324	47.79%	-20.00 pp	+5.50 pp	clears 2 SE
sixes	4	480	201	41.88%	45.52%	477	47.79%	-5.92 pp	+4.56 pp	clears 2 SE
sixes	5	443	273	61.63%	61.03%	438	47.79%	+13.83 pp	+4.75 pp	clears 2 SE
sixes	6	253	182	71.94%	77.70%	253	47.79%	+24.14 pp	+6.29 pp	clears 2 SE
sixes	7	85	68	80.00%	85.01%	85	47.79%	+32.21 pp	+10.85 pp	insufficient
sixes	8	26	22	84.62%	92.74%	26	47.79%	+36.82 pp	+19.61 pp	insufficient
sixes	9	1	1	100.00%	99.29%	1	47.79%	+52.21 pp	+100.00 pp	insufficient
wickets	0	4	3	75.00%	91.60%	1	47.79%	+27.21 pp	+50.00 pp	insufficient
wickets	1	46	36	78.26%	77.88%	42	47.79%	+30.47 pp	+14.74 pp	insufficient
wickets	2	164	116	70.73%	74.43%	157	47.79%	+22.94 pp	+7.81 pp	clears 2 SE
wickets	3	376	211	56.12%	59.53%	373	47.79%	+8.32 pp	+5.16 pp	clears 2 SE
wickets	4	474	244	51.48%	52.69%	469	47.79%	+3.68 pp	+4.59 pp	within noise
wickets	5	438	176	40.18%	42.22%	435	47.79%	-7.61 pp	+4.78 pp	clears 2 SE
wickets	6	211	61	28.91%	34.52%	210	47.79%	-18.88 pp	+6.88 pp	clears 2 SE
wickets	7	79	16	20.25%	25.30%	78	47.79%	-27.54 pp	+11.25 pp	insufficient
wickets	8	20	4	20.00%	18.73%	20	47.79%	-27.79 pp	+22.36 pp	insufficient
wickets	9	2	0	0.00%	12.72%	2	47.79%	-47.79 pp	+70.71 pp	insufficient

Over-total line: a total on the line loses both sides (F-3)

The Fancy market is a team-total line for each over, with NO at the lay line L and YES at L+1. The book pays NO only when the total finishes strictly below L. NO won 46.28% of 16,562 lines. At lay rate 100, where NO pays 2.00, it needs 50.00% to break even, so backing NO on every line returns -7.44 per 100 staked.

Where the total lands, against the lay line

Outcome	Lines	Share	Settles
Strictly under L	7,665	46.28%	NO wins
Exactly on L	1,348	8.14%	both lose
L+1 or more	7,549	45.58%	YES wins

NO wins 46.28% and YES 45.58%. The house's share is 8.14%: every total from L to one below the back line loses for NO and YES alike, and the 8.14% landing exactly on L is part of it.

NO break-even

50.00%

lay rate 100, where NO pays 2.00

Two SE

0.78%

at the break-even

Line step

13.71

overs score 13.80

Verdict

short of break-even

The line step averages 13.71 runs and overs score 13.80 on average, so the line sits where the over lands.

By over

Over	Lines	NO wins
1	3,511	49.27%
2	3,510	45.21%
3	3,503	46.19%
4	3,323	45.44%
5	2,715	44.94%

By team

Team	Lines	NO wins
Aus	8,802	46.74%
Ind	7,760	45.76%

By shoe richness

Shoe vs line	Lines	NO wins
<= -1	296	42.57%
-1..0	7,798	43.99%
0..1	8,409	48.50%
>= 1	51	49.02%

What the book pays

Settlement:NO at L wins only when the total is strictly below L, and a total on L loses it. YES is quoted at L+1, so a total on L should lose YES as well; no YES bet has been placed to confirm that. The site's written rules state neither. The book's own ledger does: on 2026-09-22 all 26 live NO bets it settled on Game B over lines fit the rule, including the one total that landed on the line.
Payout: every line here is quoted at lay rate 100, so NO pays 2.00. The site's rules name no commission.
Acceptance:the line holds one price for its whole window, and a ₹100 NO bet on one was accepted and settled by the book on 2026-09-20.

Model vs Bookmaker price at equal information, by confidence band

Bands are each model's chance that AUS, batting first, wins, given no tie. The Bookmaker prices 5Five from the cards: its implied chance is the exact card model's plus about 1.1 points. A model state is compared only with a quote the book set after that state and still showed two seconds later, before the next ball. An earlier version of this card used the quote on screen when the ball arrived, usually set one ball earlier, and so credited the model with a card the price had not seen.

Confidence	Model	Every state			Priced at equal information
Confidence	Model	States	Model %	AUS won %	States	Matches	Model %	Book implied %	AUS won %	Won minus implied (pts)	Mean odds
90%+	Exact card model	8,112	97.15%	97.03%	2,259	457	94.80%	95.90%	95.17%	-0.73	1.043
90%+	64-neighbour	4,690	96.18%	98.53%	803	222	93.43%	96.56%	96.39%	-0.18	1.036
80-90%	Exact card model	4,124	84.96%	82.90%	1,811	508	85.16%	86.66%	81.83%	-4.83	1.155
80-90%	64-neighbour	3,574	84.87%	90.96%	1,520	427	84.85%	92.15%	91.32%	-0.84	1.09
70-80%	Exact card model	4,560	74.81%	72.92%	1,525	534	75.00%	76.50%	74.03%	-2.47	1.309
70-80%	64-neighbour	5,247	74.79%	79.82%	1,926	579	74.90%	84.11%	80.94%	-3.17	1.202
60-70%	Exact card model	5,976	64.65%	63.14%	1,737	657	64.90%	65.84%	65.69%	-0.15	1.522
60-70%	64-neighbour	6,214	64.80%	67.30%	2,021	640	64.92%	72.96%	70.26%	-2.70	1.401
50-60%	Exact card model	8,753	54.75%	53.27%	2,010	744	54.84%	55.70%	53.58%	-2.11	1.801
50-60%	64-neighbour	9,757	54.61%	55.70%	1,959	693	55.26%	63.36%	62.12%	-1.24	1.612
under 50%	Exact card model	30,404	27.47%	25.96%	254	219	49.26%	51.02%	50.79%	-0.23	1.96
under 50%	64-neighbour	32,702	29.55%	28.62%	1,405	598	43.89%	57.83%	55.80%	-2.03	1.754

What each table on this page counts

1,992 rounds have settled. A study holding fewer says how many it left out and why, so the same round is never counted two different ways.

Table	Rounds	Excluded	Why
cricketv3_match_feature	1,992	—	Every settled round.
cricketv3_prefix_history	1,867	125	Decided rounds carrying at least an 8-ball prefix, excluding any whose settlement predates its own start (a reused round id).
cricketv3_over_state	1,823	169	Decided rounds only — a tie has no winner to group the over totals by — and only those whose ball sequence could be reconstructed.

1st-over runs → Team 1 win rate

Runs the team batting first scores in over 1, vs how often they go on to win. Dashed line = overall base rate.

Cards said: the exact card model after over 1, the mean chance team 1 (AUS) wins given no tie, over the priced rounds, those whose card record proves the state. These rounds hold no ties, so both columns leave them out.

Team 1 wonCards said, for the priced roundsTeam 1 overall

1st-over runs	Rounds	Team 1 win %	Cards said %	Priced rounds
0-4	34	23.5%	28.2%	31
5-9	327	31.2%	36.9%	326
10-14	691	44.9%	46.5%	690
15-19	554	54.3%	56.6%	554
20-24	169	71.0%	66.2%	169
25-29	24	79.2%	76.0%	24
30-34	2	100.0%	82.2%	2

First-innings total → Team 1 win rate

The target Team 1 posts across 5 overs, vs how often they defend it. Near-deterministic at the extremes.

Team 1 wonCards said, for the priced roundsTeam 1 overall

First-innings total	Rounds	Team 1 win %	Cards said %	Priced rounds
30-39	2	0.0%	0.0%	1
40-49	16	0.0%	0.4%	16
50-59	238	4.6%	7.3%	237
60-69	726	32.9%	33.9%	712
70-79	640	69.5%	72.8%	633
80-89	178	91.6%	95.3%	178
90-99	10	100.0%	99.6%	10

Combined predictor — 1st over × first-innings total

Team 1 win % for each combination of opening-over runs (rows) and first-innings total (columns). Greener = Team 1 more likely; each cell shows its sample size. Read off your two numbers to get the historical outcome.

The cards line in each cell is the exact card model at the innings break: the mean chance team 1 (AUS) wins given no tie, over the cell's priced rounds, those whose card record proves the state. Hover a cell for how many that is. These rounds hold no ties.

1st over ↓ / Total →	30+	40+	50+	60+	70+	80+	90+
0-4	0% cards — n=1	0% cards 0% n=2	8% cards 7% n=13	36% cards 32% n=14	50% cards 77% n=4	·	·
5-9	0% cards 0% n=1	0% cards 1% n=5	3% cards 7% n=73	28% cards 31% n=151	56% cards 70% n=80	81% cards 94% n=16	·
10-14	·	0% cards 0% n=7	7% cards 7% n=106	34% cards 34% n=292	68% cards 73% n=236	91% cards 95% n=46	100% cards 99% n=1
15-19	·	0% cards 0% n=2	2% cards 8% n=41	33% cards 35% n=213	72% cards 73% n=226	91% cards 95% n=68	100% cards 100% n=4
20-24	·	·	0% cards 9% n=4	38% cards 37% n=42	78% cards 75% n=77	95% cards 96% n=42	100% cards 99% n=3
25-29	·	·	·	50% cards 44% n=4	73% cards 72% n=11	100% cards 96% n=6	100% cards 100% n=2
30-34	·	·	·	·	100% cards 90% n=2	·	·

Team 2 winsTeam 1 winsback-tested on 1,816 rounds

Streak frequency vs chance

Observed runs are compared with the count a chance process would produce using each side's own win rate. Ties are excluded.

Team	Run length	Observed	Expected by chance	Side win %
AUS	1	252	251.20	47.6%
AUS	2	140	119.50	47.6%
AUS	3	50	56.90	47.6%
AUS	4	25	27.10	47.6%
AUS	5	10	12.90	47.6%
AUS	6	6	6.10	47.6%
AUS	7	3	2.90	47.6%
AUS	8	1	1.40	47.6%
AUS	9	2	0.70	47.6%
IND	1	242	228.20	52.4%
IND	2	124	119.50	52.4%
IND	3	55	62.60	52.4%
IND	4	31	32.80	52.4%
IND	5	18	17.20	52.4%
IND	6	8	9.00	52.4%
IND	7	5	4.70	52.4%
IND	8	3	2.50	52.4%
IND	10	2	0.70	52.4%
IND	11	1	0.40	52.4%

Exact fingerprint repeats

Complete first-innings and full-match ball sequences hashed into exact fingerprints. Repeats are descriptive evidence only; the winner history shows whether an identical sequence stayed consistent.

No exact repeats were found among complete match fingerprints.

Team win / loss streaks

Full-history run lengths by team. Longest and average streaks describe clustering; they do not assume the next result is due.

Team	Matches	Win rate	Longest W / L	Average W / L
AUS	1,922	48%	9 / 10	1.8 / 2.0
IND	1,922	52%	10 / 9	2.0 / 1.8

Bookmaker odds-movement back-tests

Top five pre-settlement movement patterns at each 20 / 40 / 100 point sensitivity. Hit rate is compared with the random-pick baseline; sufficiency and slice spread keep small or unstable rows visibly qualified.

Pattern	Occurrences	Hit / base	Lift	Worst miss run	Slice spread	Verdict
AUS1.05 → 1.00 · down · 20pt	169 (168 settled)	97.0% / 100.0%	-3.0 pp	1	0.7 pp	no-edge
IND1.05 → 1.00 · down · 20pt	141 (136 settled)	99.3% / 100.0%	-0.7 pp	1	0.7 pp	no-edge
IND2.00 → 1.00 · down · 20pt	135 (135 settled)	97.0% / 100.0%	-3.0 pp	1	1.6 pp	no-edge
IND1.10 → 1.00 · down · 20pt	111 (108 settled)	99.1% / 100.0%	-0.9 pp	1	0.7 pp	no-edge
AUS2.00 → 1.00 · down · 20pt	111 (111 settled)	97.3% / 100.0%	-2.7 pp	1	0.8 pp	no-edge
IND2.00 → 1.00 · down · 40pt	160 (159 settled)	97.5% / 100.0%	-2.5 pp	1	1.5 pp	no-edge
AUS2.00 → 1.00 · down · 40pt	141 (141 settled)	97.9% / 100.0%	-2.1 pp	1	0.7 pp	no-edge
IND1.10 → 1.00 · down · 40pt	93 (91 settled)	98.9% / 100.0%	-1.1 pp	1	0.7 pp	no-edge
AUS1.10 → 1.00 · down · 40pt	95 (94 settled)	96.8% / 100.0%	-3.2 pp	1	1.2 pp	no-edge
IND2.00 → 1.05 · down · 40pt	97 (95 settled)	91.6% / 95.2%	-3.7 pp	3	3.3 pp	no-edge
IND2.00 → 1.00 · down · 100pt	236 (232 settled)	97.4% / 100.0%	-2.6 pp	1	0.8 pp	no-edge
AUS2.00 → 1.00 · down · 100pt	225 (224 settled)	96.4% / 100.0%	-3.6 pp	1	1.0 pp	no-edge
IND2.00 → 1.05 · down · 100pt	115 (110 settled)	93.6% / 95.2%	-1.6 pp	2	2.2 pp	no-edge
AUS2.00 → 1.05 · down · 100pt	96 (93 settled)	83.9% / 95.2%	-11.4 pp	2	3.2 pp	no-edge
IND2.00 → 1.20 · down · 100pt	94 (86 settled)	72.1% / 83.3%	-11.2 pp	4	4.0 pp	no-edge