Tables247/Data
Analysis

Casino · superover

Super Over

A one-over casino game on the tables247 data2 feed, with settled winners and dealt cards. Distinct from Virtual T10, which is a sportsbook-virtual product with no settlement source.

Prediction-onlyHit rate, coverage, and counts; never stakes or returns.

The exact deck

Nothing here is estimated

Prediction-only

Each innings is dealt from a fresh 35 cards, five each of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 6 and W, and runs six balls or until the second wicket. Because the deck is known, every chance below is a count over the cards still in it — not a rate fitted to history. 48,576 balls over 4,643 matches.

The deck as it depletes · round 78574571400
Every card dealt in the most recent round, the deck left after it, and the exact chance each side wins from there. A card marked recovered was not seen: the card that ends an innings is usually gone before the next poll, and the scoreboard's final score determines what it was.
InnBallCardScoreTargetDeck leftENGRSATie
1133-0—
051525344565W534 of 35
51.7%42.8%5.5%
1225-0—
051524344565W533 of 35
51.3%42.9%5.8%
1349-0—
051524344465W532 of 35
61.4%32.8%5.9%
14211-0—
051523344465W531 of 35
60.9%32.9%6.2%
15415-0—
051523344365W530 of 35
72.6%21.6%5.7%
16015-0—
041523344365W529 of 35
59.3%33.4%7.3%
2166-015
051525354564W534 of 35
32.4%59.5%8.1%
2217-015
051425354564W533 of 35
39.0%51.6%9.4%
2329-015
051424354564W532 of 35
38.4%49.9%11.7%
24615-015
051424354563W531 of 35
-0.0%90.3%9.7%
25419-015
051424354463W530 of 35
0.0%100.0%0.0%
Does the model tell the truth?
Every in-play moment bucketed by what the deck said, against what actually happened. A model on a known deck should land inside two standard errors in every band. It does not — and every miss leans the same way, toward the chasing side. One constant shift of 2.7 points fixes all seven bands at once, which is what the second table shows: the model's shape is right and only its level is off. Why the chaser wins more than the cards say is the one open question in this game.

exact deck

BandMomentsModel saidHappenedGap2 SEInside
0%-10%4,3822.4%2.3%-0.10.46yes
10%-25%3,86018.5%16.2%-2.31.25no
25%-40%6,86133.1%31.9%-1.21.14no
40%-60%11,67050.4%50.1%-0.30.93yes
60%-75%5,79067.7%67.4%-0.31.23yes
75%-90%5,41682.2%82.1%-0.21.04yes
90%-100%7,30097.8%97.7%-0.10.34yes

exact deck plus the chaser tilt

BandMomentsModel saidHappenedGap2 SEInside
0%-10%4,9262.2%2.2%-0.00.42yes
10%-25%3,90118.3%16.4%-2.01.24no
25%-40%7,45333.2%32.9%-0.31.09yes
40%-60%11,22750.4%51.0%+0.50.94yes
60%-75%5,81467.7%68.1%+0.51.23yes
75%-90%5,20482.2%82.5%+0.21.06yes
90%-100%7,22797.8%97.8%-0.00.34yes
Every market against the deck
The price used is always the first one quoted after the card. Model is what the cards left in the deck say; hit is what happened. Two standard errors are computed on matches, not quotes — every ball of a match carries a quote on the same eventual winner, so counting quotes as independent would shrink the error two and a half times and stamp an edge on the house margin.

Common market

SelectionQuotesModelHitPriceImpliedPer unit backVerdict
Common Boundrystruck before the innings, settles on the whole innings4,62184.90%83.66%1.17085.47%0.979priced
Common Wicketstruck before the innings, settles on the whole innings4,62163.42%62.58%1.56064.10%0.976priced

Innings-1 total line

SelectionQuotesModelHitPriceImpliedPer unit backVerdict
NO (total below the line)YES pays its rate per 100, NO risks its rate to win 100; line 13.45 on average against a deck expectation of 13.0124,466—44.58%2.15646.38%0.961priced
YES (total at or above the line)YES pays its rate per 100, NO risks its rate to win 100; line 13.45 on average against a deck expectation of 13.0124,464—55.42%1.77856.23%0.986priced

Match winner (Bookmaker)

SelectionQuotesModelHitPriceImpliedPer unit backVerdict
ENGevery ball of 4399 matches, priced from the deck27,18763.87%63.41%1.62661.49%1.031candidate
RSAevery ball of 4399 matches, priced from the deck24,28360.78%61.64%1.68459.37%1.038candidate

Per-ball outcome

SelectionQuotesModelHitPriceImpliedPer unit backVerdict
Boundryback only; the lay side is never quoted48,50828.63%28.45%3.38729.52%0.964priced
Oneback only; the lay side is never quoted48,50814.24%14.10%6.83014.64%0.963priced
Threeback only; the lay side is never quoted48,50814.24%14.47%6.82914.64%0.988priced
Twoback only; the lay side is never quoted48,50814.24%14.24%6.83514.63%0.974priced
Wicketback only; the lay side is never quoted48,50814.48%14.37%6.66715.00%0.958priced
Zeroback only; the lay side is never quoted48,50814.17%14.37%6.87214.55%0.987priced
Deck integrity monitor
Checks each innings against the 35-card deck: five copies of every value. A sixth copy is the breach, not a fifth.
Innings checked
9391
Most copies of one value
5
35-card deck breaches
0
Reached five legally
1
Streak frequency vs chance
Observed runs are compared with the count a chance process would produce using each side's own win rate. Ties are excluded.
TeamRun lengthObservedExpected by chanceSide win %
ENG1568575.2048.5%
ENG2297279.1048.5%
ENG3126135.4048.5%
ENG46665.7048.5%
ENG54231.9048.5%
ENG61315.5048.5%
ENG737.5048.5%
ENG853.6048.5%
ENG921.8048.5%
RSA1556542.3051.5%
RSA2270279.1051.5%
RSA3127143.6051.5%
RSA48673.9051.5%
RSA54238.0051.5%
RSA62719.6051.5%
RSA7610.1051.5%
RSA855.2051.5%
RSA922.7051.5%
RSA1011.4051.5%
Forward log — candidates predicting before the result
Each prediction is written from a capture that precedes its outcome and is never rewritten. A candidate only becomes an edge if it holds here, across two reviews, against the price rather than a coin flip.
superover_chase_engPredicts ENGCandidate

Back ENG, the chasing side, before the Super Over starts.

Predictions
2,327
Decided
2,209 (115 void)
Hit rate
50.3%
Needs (from the price)
51.1%

-0.8 points against the price, -0.016 per unit staked. Last settled 26 Sept 2026, 07:51 am IST.

Scored against the pre-match Bookmaker price for ENG. A tie is No Result and voids the stake, so it is logged with hit = NULL, not as a loss.

superover_chase_rsaPredicts RSACandidate

Back RSA, the chasing side, before the Super Over starts.

Predictions
2,917
Decided
2,764 (150 void)
Hit rate
50.4%
Needs (from the price)
51%

-0.6 points against the price, -0.012 per unit staked. Last settled 26 Sept 2026, 07:51 am IST.

Scored against the pre-match Bookmaker price for RSA. A tie is No Result and voids the stake, so it is logged with hit = NULL, not as a loss.

One-over study

Super Over

Prediction-only

Settled winner grids, within-innings ball transitions, team streaks, card consistency, and prices aligned immediately around each observed ball.

Super Over

Complete
Matches
4,723
Labelled
4,473
Complete score
4,698
Odds ticks
14,05,606

settled winner and scoreboard sources present; 4473 labelled and 4698 complete matches

Refreshed 26 Sept 2026, 07:54 am IST

Team win / loss streaks
Historical run lengths; descriptive only, with no gambler's fallacy assumption.
TeamW–LLongest W / LAverage W / L
ENG2170–23019 / 91.8 / 1.9
RSA2301–21709 / 91.9 / 1.8
Card → outcome consistency
Provider card tokens paired only when complete card and score innings can be aligned without guessing.
CardOutcomeCountPurity
10CC0390 / 390100%
10DD02982 / 2982100%
10HH0401 / 401100%
10SS03140 / 3140100%
2CC2422 / 422100%
2DD22989 / 2989100%
2HH2401 / 401100%
2SS23028 / 3028100%
3CC3392 / 392100%
3DD32991 / 2991100%
3HH3399 / 399100%
3SS33162 / 3162100%
4CC4408 / 408100%
4DD42902 / 2902100%
4HH4417 / 417100%
4SS43111 / 3111100%
6CC6398 / 398100%
6DD62884 / 2884100%
6HH6392 / 392100%
6SS63175 / 3175100%
ACC1421 / 421100%
ADD12838 / 2838100%
AHH1427 / 427100%
ASS13101 / 3101100%
KCCW334 / 334100%
KDDW2607 / 2607100%
KHHW338 / 338100%
KSSW2785 / 2785100%
Ball-aligned odds movement
Last quoted price before and first quoted price after each observed ball, aggregated by innings, ball, market, and side.
BallMarketSideSnapshotsMean ΔMean |Δ|Max |Δ|
I1 · B1Bookmakerback6,821-0.2290.230.86
I1 · B1Bookmakerlay26-0.0320.1970.52
I1 · B1Fancyback9,220-0.0020.9924.00
I1 · B1Fancylay9,220-0.0020.9924.00
I1 · B2Bookmakerback4,599-0.0960.2140.86
I1 · B2Bookmakerlay3,302-0.090.1930.68
I1 · B2Fancyback9,176+0.0930.8885.00
I1 · B2Fancylay9,176+0.0930.8885.00
I1 · B3Bookmakerback5,092-0.0840.210.78
I1 · B3Bookmakerlay4,192-0.0770.1930.68
I1 · B3Fancyback8,596+0.0930.885.00
I1 · B3Fancylay8,596+0.0930.885.00
I1 · B4Bookmakerback4,687-0.0650.2030.82
I1 · B4Bookmakerlay4,220-0.0720.1930.66
I1 · B4Fancyback7,567+0.1380.9095.00
I1 · B4Fancylay7,567+0.1380.9095.00
I1 · B5Bookmakerback4,322-0.0530.200.71
I1 · B5Bookmakerlay3,941-0.0780.1870.65
I1 · B5Fancyback5,851+0.0111.1424.00
I1 · B5Fancylay5,855+0.0111.1414.00
I1 · B6Bookmakerback4,009-0.070.190.69
I1 · B6Bookmakerlay3,683-0.0370.1730.65
I2 · B1Bookmakerback4,406-0.040.1710.65
I2 · B1Bookmakerlay4,194-0.050.1690.78
I2 · B1Fancy1back6+0.000.000.00
I2 · B2Bookmakerback3,968-0.0320.1840.85
I2 · B2Bookmakerlay3,835-0.0410.1780.86
I2 · B2Fancy1back6+0.000.000.00
I2 · B3Bookmakerback3,280-0.0570.2040.87
I2 · B3Bookmakerlay3,101-0.0590.1910.86
I2 · B4Bookmakerback2,301-0.0210.2150.87
I2 · B4Bookmakerlay2,164-0.0270.2020.86
I2 · B5Bookmakerback979+0.0470.2790.85
I2 · B5Bookmakerlay870+0.0390.2610.82
Super Over market behavior
Price range, quote activity, suspension share, and movement count across every observed market stream.
League / marketSide · slotTicksSuspendedPrice rangeChanges
Super OverBookmaker · 2 runner seriesback · back154,6440%1.01–1.98mean 1.58242,489
Super OverBookmaker · 2 runner serieslay · lay139,0310%1.03–1.97mean 1.46631,052
Super OverFancy · 2 runner seriesback · back149,7950%4.00–30.00mean 13.21818,368
Super OverFancy · 2 runner serieslay · lay149,7990%4.00–30.00mean 13.21818,368
Super OverFancy1 · 74 runner seriesback · back13,04,5600%1.17–29.50mean 6.0880
Super OverFancy1 · 2 runner serieslay · lay19,3300%1.22–1.61mean 1.4150